Diverging Opinions on the Federal Government's Exchange Rate Goals: NECA and Experts at Odds

 

Debate Surrounds Government's Exchange Rate Target and Banking Sector Reorganization

Amid reports suggesting that the Federal Government is working on attaining an exchange rate target of N500-N600 per US dollar while contemplating banking sector reorganization, various private sector organizations and financial experts have voiced differing opinions on the viability and benefits of such objectives. Their recommendations to establish a stable macroeconomic environment addressing exchange rate volatility have been expressed to guide the government.

Dr. Tope Fasua, Special Adviser to the President on Economic Matters, revealed during a recent event that the government has plans to boost the value of the naira. He attributed the recent strengthening of the naira to policies being implemented by the government and warned individuals hoarding foreign currencies that these policies may come as a surprise to them.

In response, the Nigeria Employers Consultative Association (NECA) and economic experts commended the initiative but urged the government to clarify and disclose specific policy plans. They emphasized the importance of local production, tackling the nation's import dependence, and ensuring alignment between fiscal and monetary policy authorities before targeting a lower exchange rate.

NECA's Director-General, Mr. Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, encouraged the government to engage with organized businesses to gain consensus and support for ongoing reforms. Olatunde Amolegbe, the immediate past President of the Chartered Institute of Stockbrokers, expressed uncertainty about the working paper to achieve the exchange rate goal, emphasizing the need for more information.

Nnamdi Nwizu, Co-Founder of Comercio Partners Limited, praised the alignment of fiscal and monetary policy authorities but called for more transparency regarding actions and their impact on strengthening the economy and promoting exports.

Mallam Garba Kurfi, Managing Director/CEO of APT Securities & Funds, saw the exchange rate target as a positive development that could lead to lower inflation rates and increased economic output. He anticipated that the central bank's actions, likely related to restructuring the banking system, could help achieve the goal.

Ambrose Omordion, an analyst at Invesdata Consulting Limited, believed that achieving the exchange rate target is feasible, primarily due to sustained high international oil prices. He suggested that funding from organizations like the World Bank and increased foreign investment could enhance foreign exchange earnings. Recommendations from NECA and financial experts included addressing the nation's import dependency, privatizing national refineries, maximizing crude production, and promoting local production to reduce pressure on the naira. Monitoring bank accounts for currency hoarding and encouraging production and exports were also recommended to increase the supply of foreign exchange.

The debate highlights the complexities and challenges associated with exchange rate stabilization and financial sector reform in Nigeria. While the government's intentions are commendable, the path to achieving these goals remains a topic of discussion and potential scrutiny.